In my discussions with consumers who may be considering the purchase of long-term care insurance, they often try to determine whether they will need long-term care services in the future.

This is impossible to know for a certainty since none of us possesses a crystal ball that allows us to see ahead in the future. That means that we have to rely on available information to make a reasonable decision. For most people this means looking into the past to find trends that can shed light on what will probably happen in the future.

Many people will look back on past health history as if it is a good predictor of future care needs. This kind of rationalization is often overly optimistic. There are many people receiving long-term care services today that resulted from a sudden change in health. This can be caused by strokes, aneurysms, accidents and many other causes.

There are also many other illnesses that can appear without warning and slowly erode good health. Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, multiple sclerosis and many others fall into this category.

Another line of reasoning that is often used to help predict future long-term care needs is family history, particularly that of parents. Many people assume that whatever happened to their parents is a good indicator of future long-term care needs.

This may or may not be true. An important factor that is often not considered is the advancements that have been made in the treatment of disease within the last twenty years.

It has been well established that many of the diseases that were causing death in short order decades ago are no longer doing so. Medical science has learned how to prolong our life in the face of such illnesses, but this means that we can also need more care toward the end of life than was necessary in the past.

Since the need for future care services is hard to predict on an individual basis, it is usually best to ask two basic questions instead. Do I (we) have assets that need to be protected from being used for possible long-term care services? Can I (we) reasonably afford the premiums for long-term care insurance?

If the answer to those questions is in the affirmative, long-term care insurance may be a viable option for you to consider.